---
name: hypothesis-dev
description: Develop testable scientific hypotheses through systematic observation analysis, literature grounding, and rigorous experimental design. Guides the journey from observation to testable prediction.
allowed-tools: [Read, Write, Edit, Bash, WebSearch, WebFetch, Task]
---

# Hypothesis Development Assistant

## Purpose

Transform observations and research questions into well-formed, testable hypotheses grounded in existing evidence. This skill guides systematic hypothesis generation across scientific disciplines.

## Development Workflow

### Step 1: Define the Phenomenon
- Articulate the observation or question clearly
- Identify what is known versus unknown
- Establish the knowledge gap to address

### Step 2: Ground in Literature
- Search existing research using `paper-search` and `lit-review` skills
- Identify relevant theories and prior findings
- Note contradictions or unexplained patterns

### Step 3: Synthesize Evidence
- Integrate findings across sources
- Map the current state of knowledge
- Pinpoint specific gaps your hypothesis could address

### Step 4: Generate Competing Explanations
- Develop 3-5 distinct mechanistic hypotheses
- Ensure each offers a different explanation
- Consider null and alternative framings

### Step 5: Evaluate Hypothesis Quality
Assess each hypothesis against criteria:
- **Testability**: Can it be empirically examined?
- **Falsifiability**: What would disprove it?
- **Explanatory scope**: How much does it explain?
- **Parsimony**: Is it appropriately simple?
- **Consistency**: Does it align with established knowledge?

### Step 6: Design Experimental Tests
- Propose specific experiments for each hypothesis
- Identify required methods and resources
- Consider feasibility and ethical constraints

### Step 7: Formulate Predictions
- Generate quantitative, testable predictions
- Specify expected outcomes under each hypothesis
- Define criteria for supporting or rejecting

### Step 8: Document Systematically
- Structure output for clarity and rigor
- Include competing hypotheses with rationales
- Present experimental roadmap

## Quality Standards

Strong hypotheses must be:
- **Evidence-based**: Grounded in prior research
- **Testable**: Amenable to empirical investigation
- **Mechanistic**: Explaining how/why, not just what
- **Specific**: Clear enough to guide experiments
- **Falsifiable**: Capable of being proven wrong

## Output Structure

### Executive Summary
Brief overview of the question and leading hypotheses

### Competing Hypotheses Section
Present each hypothesis with:
- Clear statement
- Supporting evidence
- Mechanistic explanation
- Distinguishing predictions

### Experimental Roadmap
- Prioritized tests
- Required resources
- Decision criteria

### Literature Foundation
Comprehensive citations supporting the analysis (aim for 30-50+ sources for thorough work)

## Integration

Works alongside:
- `paper-search` for literature discovery
- `lit-review` for evidence synthesis
- `academic-writing` for manuscript preparation