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name: analyzing-macro-regime description: Interprets macroeconomic regime shifts and links them to sector and valuation implications. Use when the user asks about inflation, rates, growth cycles, policy stance, or macro risk scenarios.

Analyzing Macro Regime

When to use this skill

• When the user asks for top-down macro context.
• When investment conclusions need rate/inflation/growth framing.
• When scenario planning requires macro sensitivity.

Workflow

1. Plan

• Define the regime question (inflationary slowdown, disinflationary growth, recession risk, etc.).
• Select required indicators before analysis.

2. Validate

• Confirm indicator timestamps and release windows.
• Confirm geography and period consistency.

3. Execute

• Build a compact regime view from indicators.
• Translate regime into sector/asset implications.
• List leading indicators that could invalidate the view.

Instructions

• Use a fixed indicator set unless user scope says otherwise:
  • Inflation trend
  • Policy rate and real rate direction
  • Labor market momentum
  • Growth momentum
  • Credit/financial conditions
• Distinguish level vs direction (high inflation vs falling inflation).
• Separate cyclical signals from structural narratives.
• Tie macro view to valuation impact, not just story.

Regime checklist

• [ ] Indicator dates and sources stated
• [ ] Current regime hypothesis stated
• [ ] Alternative regime stated
• [ ] Portfolio or sector implications stated
• [ ] Invalidation triggers stated

Output template

## Macro Regime Assessment

### Current Regime Hypothesis
- <regime label>
- Confidence: <High/Medium/Low>

### Indicator Snapshot
| Indicator | Latest | Direction | Interpretation |
|---|---:|---|---|
| Inflation | ... | ... | ... |
| Policy Rate | ... | ... | ... |

### Investment Implications
- Sector tilt: <...>
- Valuation pressure/support: <...>

### Invalidation Triggers
- <trigger 1>

Error handling

• If key macro data is stale, state staleness and reduce confidence.
• If indicators conflict, present competing regime views.
• If user asks for precision not supported by data, provide scenario ranges instead.

Resources

• Official macro data sources (for example: FRED, BEA, BLS)
• scanning-macro-news（上游技能：提供最新宏觀事件掃描，確保體制判斷基於即時資訊）
• monitoring-geopolitical-risk（協同技能：地緣事件的傳導分析可作為體制判斷輸入）
• collecting-market-data（協同技能：提供即時市場數據佐證體制方向）
• stress-testing-portfolio（下游技能：將體制判斷轉化為組合壓力測試情境）