Skills Guide

Polyclaw: AI news scanner & auto-trader

VerifiedCaution

AI-powered news edge scanner and auto-trader for Polymarket. Ingests real-time news, matches markets, estimates probability shifts, detects edges, and auto-trades via CLOB API.

Sby Skills Guide Bot
Data & AIAdvanced
5807/26/2026
Claude Code
#prediction-markets#news-analysis#trading#llm#python

Recommended for

Claude CodeBackend developerData scientistData & analysis

Automated summary

Scans real-time news feeds, matches them against Polymarket markets, estimates probability shifts, and tracks paper positions on the edges it finds.

Strengths

  • Multi-source ingestion (RSS, CoinGecko, Fear & Greed, Chinese crypto media) with content-hash deduplication and a rolling cache
  • Category-aware matching with English/Chinese entity extraction, negation-aware sentiment, and specificity gates
  • Optional Gemini 2.5 Flash signals that can be merged with rule-based scoring or run on their own
  • Fee-adjusted edge calculation with Kelly sizing plus automated position handling (take-profit, stop-loss, 24h timeout)

Limitations

  • The described modules manage paper positions; real CLOB order execution is claimed but not detailed in the skill
  • LLM mode requires the Gemini CLI at a hardcoded path (/opt/homebrew/bin/gemini), which is macOS-oriented
  • Relies on live external APIs (Gamma API, RSS feeds) with no backtesting and no explicit rate-limit handling
When to use it

Use it to surface news-driven trading opportunities on Polymarket and dry-run an edge strategy without risking real capital.

When not to use it

Skip it if you need a production bot placing real orders, or if you don't have Python and the Gemini CLI already set up.

Security analysis

Caution
Quality score88/100

The skill enables automated financial trading and network interactions, but does not instruct destructive or exfiltrating actions. It requires careful handling of API keys and financial risk.

Findings
  • •The skill instructs automated trading via Polymarket CLOB API, which can cause financial loss if misconfigured or malicious.
  • •Uses network access (WebFetch, Bash python) to fetch news and interact with external APIs, including Gemini CLI.
  • •Executes Python scripts from the skill's codebase, which may have untrusted modifications.
How this analysis is made

Examples

Single LLM-assisted scan
Run a Polyclaw scan with LLM analysis on Polymarket, minimum edge 5%, and show me the top matched markets and estimated shifts.
Review open positions
Check my open Polyclaw positions and tell me which ones just hit take-profit, stop-loss, or the 24h timeout.
Continuous monitoring
Start Polyclaw continuous monitoring with a 60-second interval and a $5,000 bankroll, and flag any crypto market where fresh news moved the odds.

name: polyclaw description: AI-powered news edge scanner and auto-trader for Polymarket. Ingests real-time news from 10+ sources, matches to Polymarket markets using category-aware fuzzy matching, estimates probability shifts, detects fee-adjusted trading edges, and auto-trades via CLOB API. version: "1.1.0" license: MIT allowed-tools: Read,Write,Bash(python:*),WebFetch

Polyclaw

Prerequisites

  • Python 3.10+
  • pip packages: feedparser httpx rich pandas rapidfuzz
  • For LLM mode: Gemini CLI installed at /opt/homebrew/bin/gemini

Quick Start

# Install dependencies
cd polyclaw/src
pip install -r requirements.txt

# Run a single scan
python scanner.py --scan

# Scan with Gemini LLM analysis
python scanner.py --scan --use-llm

# Pure LLM-only mode (skip rule-based matching)
python scanner.py --scan --llm-only

# View and manage open positions
python scanner.py --positions

# Run continuous monitoring
python scanner.py --monitor --interval 60

# Custom settings
python scanner.py --scan --min-edge 0.05 --bankroll 5000

What's New (v1.1)

  • 🤖 Gemini LLM Integration — --use-llm merges LLM signals with rule-based analysis; --llm-only for pure LLM scanning
  • 📈 Position Management — Auto take-profit (+15%), stop-loss (-10%), 24h timeout with live price tracking
  • 🇨🇳 Chinese Media Sources — BlockBeats and PANews for crypto-native Chinese market intelligence
  • 8 data sources total — Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, CoinGecko, Fear & Greed, BlockBeats, PANews

Architecture

News Sources (8: RSS/APIs + Chinese media)
        │
        ▼
news_ingestion.py ──► Fetch + deduplicate + cache to news_feed.json
        │
        ▼
event_parser.py ◄──── market_cache.py (Polymarket Gamma API, 5-min TTL)
  │ Category-aware matching (crypto/politics/sports/economics/tech/geopolitics)
  │ Entity extraction (English + Chinese NLP)
  │ Negation-aware sentiment analysis
  │ Fuzzy matching with specificity gates
        │
        ▼
probability_engine.py ◄── llm_analyzer.py (optional, Gemini 2.5 Flash)
  │ Per-market signal aggregation
  │ LLM signal merging (when --use-llm)
  │ Directional shift logic (YES=up vs YES=down)
  │ Source credibility weighting
  │ Volume dampening for liquid markets
        │
        ▼
edge_calculator.py
  │ Polymarket fee schedule modeling
  │ Fee-adjusted edge computation
  │ Kelly criterion position sizing
        │
        ▼
position_manager.py
  │ Open/close paper positions
  │ Auto take-profit / stop-loss
  │ 24h timeout exit
        │
        ▼
scanner.py ──► Rich terminal UI with color-coded tables

Module Descriptions

news_ingestion.py

Fetches news from RSS feeds (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, The Block, Google News), CoinGecko trending, Fear & Greed Index, BlockBeats, and PANews (Chinese crypto media). Deduplicates by content hash. Rolling cache of 100 items.

market_cache.py

Queries Polymarket Gamma API for top 100 active markets by volume. 5-minute cache TTL.

event_parser.py

Category-aware matching with entity extraction (English + Chinese NLP), negation-aware sentiment, market question parsing, and LLM integration via parse_with_llm().

probability_engine.py

Multi-signal aggregation with directional logic, source weighting, volume dampening, and merge_llm_estimates() for combining rule-based and LLM signals.

edge_calculator.py

Models Polymarket's taker fee schedule. Fee-adjusted edge for YES/NO sides. Kelly criterion sizing.

llm_analyzer.py

Calls Gemini 2.5 Flash via CLI for structured news→market analysis. Batches up to 20 news items against all markets. Returns typed LLMSignal objects.

position_manager.py

Tracks paper trading positions with:

  • Take-profit: +15% from entry → auto close
  • Stop-loss: -10% from entry → auto close
  • Timeout: 24h with <2% move → close (signal expired)
  • Max 5 open positions, 10% per position, 30% total exposure

scanner.py

CLI orchestrator. Modes: --scan, --monitor, --positions. Flags: --use-llm, --llm-only.

Configuration

| Parameter | Default | Description | |-----------|---------|-------------| | --min-edge | 0.03 (3%) | Minimum edge after fees | | --bankroll | $1,000 | Paper trading bankroll | | --interval | 60s | Monitor scan interval | | --use-llm | off | Add Gemini LLM analysis | | --llm-only | off | Pure LLM mode | | --positions | — | View/manage positions |

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