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name: prediction-tracking description: Track and evaluate AI predictions over time to assess accuracy. Use when reviewing past predictions to determine if they came true, failed, or remain uncertain.

Prediction Tracking Skill

Track predictions made by AI researchers and critics, evaluate their accuracy over time.

Prediction Recording

When recording a new prediction, capture:

Required Fields

• text: The prediction as stated
• author: Who made it
• madeAt: When it was made
• timeframe: When they expect it to happen
• topic: What area of AI
• confidence: How confident they seemed

Optional Fields

• sourceUrl: Where the prediction was made
• targetDate: Specific date if mentioned
• conditions: Any caveats or conditions
• metrics: How to measure success

Evaluation Status

When evaluating predictions, assign one of:

verified

Clearly came true as stated.

• The predicted capability/event occurred
• Within the stated timeframe
• Substantially as described

falsified

Clearly did not come true.

• Timeframe passed without occurrence
• Contradictory evidence emerged
• Author retracted or modified claim

partially-verified

Partially accurate.

• Some aspects came true, others didn't
• Capability exists but weaker than claimed
• Timeframe was off but direction correct

too-early

Not enough time has passed.

• Still within stated timeframe
• No definitive evidence either way

unfalsifiable

Cannot be objectively assessed.

• Too vague to measure
• No clear success criteria
• Moved goalposts

ambiguous

Prediction was too vague to evaluate.

• Multiple interpretations possible
• Success criteria unclear

Evaluation Process

For each prediction being evaluated:

1. Restate the prediction

What exactly was claimed?

2. Identify timeframe

Has enough time passed to evaluate?

3. Gather evidence

What has happened since?

• Relevant releases or announcements
• Benchmark results
• Real-world deployments
• Counter-evidence

4. Assess status

Which evaluation status applies?

5. Score accuracy

If verifiable, rate 0.0-1.0:

• 1.0: Exactly as predicted
• 0.7-0.9: Substantially correct
• 0.4-0.6: Partially correct
• 0.1-0.3: Mostly wrong
• 0.0: Completely wrong

6. Note lessons

What does this tell us about:

• The author's forecasting ability
• The topic's predictability
• Common prediction pitfalls

Output Format

For evaluation:

{
  "evaluations": [
    {
      "predictionId": "id",
      "status": "verified",
      "accuracyScore": 0.85,
      "evidence": "Description of evidence",
      "notes": "Additional context",
      "evaluatedAt": "timestamp"
    }
  ]
}

For accuracy statistics:

{
  "author": "Author name",
  "totalPredictions": 15,
  "verified": 5,
  "falsified": 3,
  "partiallyVerified": 2,
  "pending": 4,
  "unfalsifiable": 1,
  "averageAccuracy": 0.62,
  "topicBreakdown": {
    "reasoning": { "predictions": 5, "accuracy": 0.7 },
    "agents": { "predictions": 3, "accuracy": 0.4 }
  },
  "calibration": "Assessment of how well-calibrated they are"
}

Calibration Assessment

Evaluate whether predictors are well-calibrated:

Well-Calibrated

• High-confidence predictions usually come true
• Low-confidence predictions have mixed results
• Acknowledges uncertainty appropriately

Overconfident

• High-confidence predictions often fail
• Rarely expresses uncertainty
• Doesn't update on evidence

Underconfident

• Low-confidence predictions often come true
• Hedges even on likely outcomes
• Too conservative

Inconsistent

• Confidence doesn't correlate with accuracy
• Random relationship between stated and actual accuracy

Tracking Notable Predictors

Keep running assessments of key voices:

| Predictor | Total | Accuracy | Calibration | Notes | |-----------|-------|----------|-------------|-------| | Sam Altman | 20 | 55% | Overconfident | Timeline optimism | | Gary Marcus | 15 | 70% | Well-calibrated | Conservative | | Dario Amodei | 12 | 65% | Slightly over | Safety-focused |

Red Flags

Watch for prediction patterns that suggest bias:

• Always bullish regardless of topic
• Never acknowledges failed predictions
• Moves goalposts when wrong
• Predictions align suspiciously with financial interests
• Vague enough to claim credit for anything